Something really big is happening in healthcare at the moment. These revolutions usually occur once in a generation. Endoscopy revolutionised the diagnosis and treatment of a long list of problems including the prevention of bowel cancer and radically shortening the need for hospital stays. Cholesterol lowering drugs reduced the impact of heart disease and so on. Now there are the obesity drugs including, semaglutide (Ozempic and Wegovy) and tirzepatide (Mounjaro and Zepbound). They’re far from perfect and are expensive, but they do induce weight loss as long as you’re taking them. They also appear to reduce the impact of heart disease and kidney damage and may even have a role in dementia prevention. But buckle up because that’s just the beginning.
Let’s start with the pharmaceutical market and what you can expect in the not-too-distant future.
Currently just two companies – Novo Nordisk (Wegovy) and Ely Lilly (Zepbound) own 99% of this $40 billion market which is growing fast. But they have competitors breathing down their necks. A bit of technical detail first. Wegovy – semaglutide is what’s called a GLP-1 agonist, which mimics the action of a protein which stimulates insulin production and has effects on feeling full after a meal and even changing our tastes for food and food focus. Tirzepatide on the other hand is a two in one drug with effects which combine GLP and another protein called GIP. Anyway, what you’re going to see is a move away from needing injections to oral drugs which combine GLP and GIP effects with the potential for even greater weight loss. That’s when you might start to see price competition. But Novo Nordisk and Ely Lilly won’t take that lying down so presumably they’ll have their own ‘new’ drugs.
The second area of impact is the healthcare system because these medications should make it easier for GPs to reduce the impact of chronic problems like diabetes, and heart and kidney disease which are burdening our hospital system. The issue though is that in general, the people who need GLP-1s the most are those who can least afford them. Will the government subsidise their use? Let’s see.
Then there are the effects outside healthcare.
In the US, the use of these medications is so widespread that the processed food industry has noticed a reduced food spend in supermarkets and elsewhere. People aren’t buying as much food and appear to have changed their preferences to fresh, unprocessed foods.
Not to be outdone, the food manufacturers are producing new ultra processed foods aimed at the ‘Ozempic’ market. Their marketing is based on fear. Make sure you get enough protein – swallow our protein supplements. Make sure you get enough nutrients – swallow our micronutrient filled products. It’s ironic that the industry that caused the obesity epidemic is now making sure they don’t miss out on the other side.
And finally, there’s the medical cosmetic industry. Manufacturers of cosmetic fillers are booming. Why? Well, it’s the ‘Ozempic face’. People on these drugs lose fat and muscle and that’s visible on the face as sag. Around the world there’s a growing demand for fillers to counter the facial sag – even if it’s temporary.
This is just the beginning.
